Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTC Prediction Pick polygram.ink |
10% | 90% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on BTC Prediction → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
10% | 90% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on BTC Prediction → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on BTC Prediction → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on BTC Prediction → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on BTC Prediction → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on BTC Prediction.
Active sub-markets
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 31.5 in Game 1? | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 32.5 in Game 1? | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 20.5 in Game 3? | 90% YES | 10% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 10% YES | 90% NO |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 10% YES probability for LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket final match between RED Canids and LOS in the CBLOL Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 31 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "RED Canids" if RED…
Methodology
Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?
- Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs on BTC Prediction
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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