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LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs

How the on-chain market is pricing "LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs" right now, plus comparison with Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold.

O/U 3.5 Games 74% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 67% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 67% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 65% Volume: $179K Liquidity: $220K Closes: 18 Aug 2026
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LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
74% 26% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
74% 26% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 3.5 Games74%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon67%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon67%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon65%
Game 2 Winner53%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor53%
Any Player Quadra Kill53%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor53%
Any Player Quadra Kill53%
Game 3 Winner52%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors52%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors52%
First Blood in Game 2?52%
First Blood in Game 3?51%
Game 4 Winner50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
First Blood in Game 4?50%
Game 1 Winner49%
Match Winner48%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon42%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon41%
O/U 4.5 Games35%
Game Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)33%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Any Player Quadra Kill27%
Any Player Quadra Kill26%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor26%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors26%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor25%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors25%
Any Player Penta Kill25%
Any Player Penta Kill25%
Any Player Penta Kill25%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors24%
Game Handicap: NS (-2.5) vs DN SOOPers (+2.5)14%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 74% probability to lol: nongshim red force vs dn soopers (bo5) - kespa cup playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between Nongshim Red Force and DN SOOPers in the KeSPA Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 18, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to…

Methodology

This page reads LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What are crypto prediction markets?
Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
and

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