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LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season

How the on-chain market is pricing "LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season" right now, plus comparison with Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold.

Game 1 Winner 100% Match Winner 97% Game 2 Winner 92% Game Handicap: LLL (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) 92% Volume: $335K Liquidity: $925K Closes: 9 Aug 2026
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LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game 1 Winner100%
Match Winner97%
Game 2 Winner92%
Game Handicap: LLL (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5)92%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon90%
Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1?90%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor10%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors10%
Any Player Quadra Kill10%
Any Player Penta Kill10%
Odd/Even Total Kills10%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?10%
O/U 2.5 Games9%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?1%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?1%
Game Handicap: VKS (-1.5) vs LOUD (+1.5)1%

Market context

The LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the LoL match between LOUD and Vivo Keyd Stars in the CBLOL Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 9 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "LOUD" if LOUD win the ma…

Methodology

This page reads LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
James WilliamsJames WilliamsPrediction Market AnalystandDavid ParkDavid ParkSports Data Analyst

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