Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?

USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Can I use Bitcoin directly?

No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

How does UMA secure the resolution?

The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.

How volatile are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.

LoL: JD Gaming vs MIBR.LOS (BO3) - Esports Worl…

Name: LoL: JD Gaming vs MIBR.LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D
Start: 2026-07-16T10:56:14.635Z
End: 2026-07-16T19:00:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	87%	13%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Open live market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	87%	13%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Open live market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Open live market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Open live market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Open live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
Match Winner	87%
Game 1 Winner	77%
Game 2 Winner	77%
First Blood in Game 2?	58%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?	55%
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs MIBR.LOS (+1.5)	53%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors	51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor	50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon	50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors	50%
Any Player Quadra Kill	50%
Any Player Penta Kill	50%
Odd/Even Total Kills	50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor	50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon	50%
Any Player Quadra Kill	50%
Any Player Penta Kill	50%
Odd/Even Total Kills	50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor	50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon	50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors	50%
Any Player Quadra Kill	50%
Any Player Penta Kill	50%
Odd/Even Total Kills	50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?	50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?	50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?	41%
O/U 2.5 Games	32%
First Blood in Game 1?	1%

Market context

The LoL: JD Gaming vs MIBR.LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D prediction market currently prices this outcome at 87% YES. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket final match between JD Gaming and MIBR.LOS in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 16 at 9:50AM ET. This market will resolve to "JD …

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?: USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
What does a transaction cost on Polygon?: Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
Can I use Bitcoin directly?: No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
How does UMA secure the resolution?: The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
How volatile are crypto prediction markets?: Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.

James WilliamsPrediction Market Analystand

David ParkSports Data Analyst

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LoL: JD Gaming vs MIBR.LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

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