Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 90% |
| Game 1 Winner | 82% |
| Game 2 Winner | 81% |
| Game 3 Winner | 81% |
| Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) | 80% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 72% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 68% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 68% |
| Game 4 Winner | 65% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 47% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 44% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 43% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 27% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 27% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 27% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 27% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 27% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 17% |
Market context
The LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs prediction market currently prices this outcome at 90% YES. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket final match between Hanwha Life Esports and LYON in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 11 at 4:00AM ET. This market will re…
Methodology
This page reads LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- How does UMA secure the resolution?
- The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
- How volatile are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.
- Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?
- In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.
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