Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTC Prediction Pick polygram.ink |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on BTC Prediction → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on BTC Prediction → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on BTC Prediction → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on BTC Prediction → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on BTC Prediction → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on BTC Prediction.
Active sub-markets
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% Odd | 50% Even |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% Galions | 0% Misa Esports |
| Game 1 Winner | 100% Galions | 0% Misa Esports |
Market context
Galions and Misa Esports will contest the fourth quarterfinal slot in the EMEA Masters League of Legends playoffs on 13 June at 11:00 AM ET, with the winner advancing to the semi-finals. The best-of-five format means first to three victories determines progression. Both squads qualified through the regular season; their relative seeding and head-to-head record during the season will inform roster confidence and draft preparation entering the match.
EMEA Masters quarterfinals have historically favoured teams with established mid-lane control and consistent jungler pathing, given the region's emphasis on early-game tempo plays. Comparable BO5 encounters at this stage show roughly even win distributions when teams carry similar regional ranking points, which aligns with the current 50-50 crowd probability. Recent EMEA Masters results indicate that teams fielding experienced supports with strong vision control tend to secure series wins; roster stability matters more than raw mechanical skill in extended formats.
Traders should monitor team announcements regarding roster changes or player illness through to the settlement window closing at 21:00 UTC on 13 June. Fixture delays beyond seven days without completion trigger a 50-50 resolution per market terms. Schedule confirmations from Riot Games EMEA and any streaming platform disruptions affecting match broadcast will affect settlement certainty. USDC settlement occurs post-match conclusion; funding rates on prediction markets typically tighten within 12 hours of match start as late traders hedge exposure.
Methodology
This page reads LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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