What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?

USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.

Can I use Bitcoin directly?

No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

How does UMA secure the resolution?

The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.

Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?

Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.

LoL: Frites Esports Club vs Once Upon A Team (B… | BTC Prediction 2026

Name: LoL: Frites Esports Club vs Once Upon A Team (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Season
Start: 2026-07-29T15:43:20.260Z
End: 2026-07-30T23:00:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	95%	5%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Open live market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	95%	5%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Open live market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Open live market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Open live market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Open live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
Match Winner	95%
Game 2 Winner	91%
Game 1 Winner	90%
Game Handicap: FEC (-1.5) vs Once Upon A Team (+1.5)	78%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon	59%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon	59%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon	59%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor	52%
Any Player Quadra Kill	52%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors	51%
Odd/Even Total Kills	50%
Odd/Even Total Kills	50%
Any Player Penta Kill	50%
Odd/Even Total Kills	50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor	38%
Any Player Penta Kill	38%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor	38%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors	38%
Any Player Penta Kill	38%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors	37%
Any Player Quadra Kill	37%
Any Player Quadra Kill	37%
O/U 2.5 Games	20%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 95% YES probability for LoL: Frites Esports Club vs Once Upon A Team (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Season. This market refers to the LoL match between Frites Esports Club and Once Upon A Team in the Road Of Legends Regular Season, initially scheduled for July 30 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "…

Methodology

This page reads LoL: Frites Esports Club vs Once Upon A Team (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Season on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

What are crypto prediction markets?: Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?: USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
Can I use Bitcoin directly?: No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
How does UMA secure the resolution?: The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?: Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.

James WilliamsPrediction Market Analystand

David ParkSports Data Analyst

Trade LoL: Frites Esports Club vs Once Upon A Team (BO3) -… on BTC Prediction

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

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LoL: Frites Esports Club vs Once Upon A Team (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Season

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade LoL: Frites Esports Club vs Once Upon A Team (BO3) -… on BTC Prediction

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