Market statistics
- Total volume
- $3.1M
- 24h volume
- $3.0M
- Liquidity
- $1.9M
- Open interest
- $2.1M
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Available prediction outcomes (3)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This event is for the upcoming La Liga game, scheduled for Wednesday, May 13, 2026 between Villarreal CF and Sevilla FC.
Wikipedia Context
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Villarreal CFVillarreal Club de Fútbol, S.A.D., usually abbreviated to Villarreal CF, is a Spanish professional football club based in Villarreal, in the Castellón province of eastern Spain, that plays in La Liga, the top flight of Spanish football.
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Villarreal CF in European football
Villarreal CF, a Spanish football club, has played in European football since 2002, in the Intertoto Cup, UEFA Cup, Champions League, Europa League, Europa Conference League and UEFA Super Cup. The club won their first Europa League title in 2021.
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Villarreal CF B
Villarreal Club de Fútbol "B" is a Spanish football team based in Villarreal, in the autonomous community of Valencia. Founded in 1999, it is the reserve team of Villarreal CF and plays in Primera Federación – Group 2, holding home games at Estadio de la Cerámica, with a 23,008-seat capacity.
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Villarreal CF C
Villarreal Club de Fútbol "C" is the third team of Villarreal CF, a Spanish football team based in Villarreal, in the autonomous community of Valencia. Founded in 2002, and plays in Tercera Federación – Group 6, holding home games at Ciudad Deportiva Villarreal CF, with a capacity of 5,000 seats.
Methodology
Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.laliga.com/. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- How does UMA secure the resolution?
- The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
- How volatile are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.
- Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?
- In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.
Trade Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC on PolyGram
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