Market statistics
- Total volume
- $1.0M
- 24h volume
- $901K
- Liquidity
- $185K
- Open interest
- $562K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
32% | 68% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
32% | 68% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Available prediction outcomes (3)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This event is for the upcoming La Liga game, scheduled for Thursday, May 14, 2026 between Valencia CF and Rayo Vallecano de Madrid.
Wikipedia Context
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Valencia CFValencia Club de Fútbol, S. A. D., commonly known as Valencia CF or simply Valencia, is a Spanish professional football club based in Valencia. The team currently competes in La Liga, the highest tier of the Spanish league system. In the all-time ranking of Spanish football, the club holds fifth place, having previously ranked third until 2016 and fourth unt
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Valencia CF in European football
These are the matches that Valencia CF have played in European football competitions.
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Valencia CF Mestalla
Valencia Club de Fútbol Mestalla, shortened to Valencia Mestalla, is the reserve team of Valencia CF, a Spanish football club based in Valencia, in the namesake community. Founded in 1944, and currently plays in Segunda Federación – Group 3, holding home games at Ciudad Deportiva de Paterna, with a 4,000-seat capacity.
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Valencia CF FemeninoValencia CF Femenino, previously Asociación Deportiva DSV Colegio Alemán, is a Spanish women's football team from Valencia currently playing in Spain's top league Liga F.
Methodology
This page reads Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.laliga.com/. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?
- Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.
- Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?
- In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.
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