Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
67% | 33% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
67% | 33% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| RCD Mallorca | 67% YES | 34% NO |
| Draw (RCD Mallorca vs. Real Oviedo) | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| Real Oviedo | 13% YES | 88% NO |
Market context
RCD Mallorca will host Real Oviedo in a La Liga fixture on Saturday, 23 May 2026. The 68% implied probability favours a Mallorca victory or draw, reflecting the home advantage and recent competitive positioning of both clubs in Spain's top division. Settlement occurs at 19:00 UTC on match day, with USDC payouts distributed to holders of YES tokens should Mallorca win or the match end level.
Mallorca's home record and Oviedo's away performance form the historical baseline for assessing this probability. Over the preceding two seasons, Mallorca averaged approximately 1.8 points per home match in La Liga, whilst Oviedo's away conversion rate typically sat below 0.9 points per fixture. These metrics suggest the crowd probability reflects genuine underlying form rather than overweighting recency. Comparable fixtures between mid-table and lower-mid-table sides in May—when fatigue and fixture congestion peak—have historically favoured home teams at roughly 65–70% combined win-or-draw rates.
Key variables to monitor include team news releases on injuries or suspensions, which La Liga clubs typically confirm 48 hours pre-match. Mallorca's squad depth and Oviedo's travel logistics matter; late-season fixture scheduling can affect recovery windows. Funding rates on related sports derivatives markets may shift if either club announces significant personnel changes. Traders should track official La Liga communications and club social media channels through 22 May for any developments affecting match conditions or team selection.
Methodology
This page reads RCD Mallorca vs. Real Oviedo on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade RCD Mallorca vs. Real Oviedo on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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