Market statistics
- Total volume
- $553K
- 24h volume
- $535K
- Liquidity
- $2.5M
- Open interest
- $409K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
51% | 49% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
51% | 49% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Available prediction outcomes (3)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This event is for the upcoming La Liga game, scheduled for Thursday, May 14, 2026 between Girona FC and Real Sociedad de Fútbol.
Wikipedia Context
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Girona FCGirona Futbol Club, S.A.D. is a Spanish professional football club based in Girona, Catalonia, Spain. Founded on 23 July 1930, the team plays in La Liga, to which they gained promotion in the 2022 Segunda División play-offs.
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Girona FC B
Girona Futbol Club "B" is a Spanish football team based in Girona, in the autonomous community of Catalonia. The reserve team of Girona FC was founded in 2011, and plays in Segunda Federación – Group 3, holding home matches at Camp de Futbol Municipal de Riudarenes in Riudarenes.
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Girona FC Femení B
Girona FC Femení is a football team from Girona, the women's section of Girona FC. The senior team was refounded in 2017 after a period of four years in which Girona were only by female teams at represented at youth level.
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Girona FC Femení A
Girona FC Femení A, referred to by the club as Senior A, is a football team from Girona, the women's section of Girona FC. Three seasons after reviving their women's section, Girona bought the women's section of Sant Pere Pescador and renamed them.
Methodology
This page reads Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.laliga.com/. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- How volatile are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.
- Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?
- In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.
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