Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
41% | 59% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
41% | 59% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Deportivo Alavés | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| Draw (Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid) | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 34% YES | 67% NO |
Market context
Deportivo Alavés will host Rayo Vallecano de Madrid on Saturday, 23 May 2026, in a La Liga fixture with settlement tied to USDC at 19:00 UTC. The 41% implied probability for the YES outcome reflects moderate backing for one of the two sides, though the market structure suggests meaningful uncertainty remains three weeks ahead of kick-off. Alavés, based in Vitoria, and Rayo, the Madrid-based club, occupy different positions in the league table, with historical head-to-head records and current form trajectories shaping baseline expectations.
Comparable La Liga matches between mid-table and lower-mid-table sides typically see probability ranges between 35% and 55% when settled on binary outcomes, depending on home advantage and recent performance streaks. Alavés' home record and Rayo's away consistency will anchor fundamental assessments. Recent seasons have shown both clubs capable of inconsistent results, making late-season fixtures particularly volatile; teams chasing European qualification or fighting relegation often deviate from pre-match odds.
Traders should monitor team news releases, injury confirmations, and league standings updates through May. Fixture congestion in the final weeks of the season—particularly if either side contests Copa del Rey or European commitments—affects squad rotation decisions. Funding rates on related sports derivatives and broader crypto market conditions may influence retail participation flows into the contract. Settlement occurs immediately post-match, with USDC payouts processed on-chain, so timing around exchange liquidity and network conditions warrants attention in the final hours before kick-off.
Methodology
This page reads Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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