Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
68% | 32% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
68% | 32% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 68% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo | 57% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Set 1 Winner | 55% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Set 2 Winner | 54% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Match O/U 21.5 | 48% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Match O/U 22.5 | 42% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Match O/U 23.5 | 38% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 37% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 33% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 27% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 26% |
| Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 23% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 68% probability to iasi open: anna bondar vs sara sorribes tormo. This market refers to the tennis match between Anna Bondar and Sara Sorribes Tormo in the Iasi Open, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Anna Bondar' if …
Methodology
This page reads Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Sara Sorribes Tormo on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- How volatile are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.
- Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?
- Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.
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