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Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty

How the on-chain market is pricing "Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty" right now, plus comparison with Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold.

20% YES 80% NO Volume: $314K Liquidity: $95K Closes: 27 May 2026
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Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
BTC Prediction Pick
polygram.ink
 20% 80% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open on BTC Prediction →
Polymarket
polymarket.com
 20% 80% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open on BTC Prediction →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open on BTC Prediction →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open on BTC Prediction →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open on BTC Prediction →

Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on BTC Prediction.

Active sub-markets

Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty20% YES80% NO
Spread -4.566% YES34% NO
O/U 169.535% YES65% NO
Spread -5.555% YES45% NO
Spread -6.553% YES48% NO
O/U 172.528% YES72% NO

Market context

Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty — current market-implied probability: 20%. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for May 27 at 7:00PM ET: If the Phoenix Mercury win, the market will resolve to "Phoenix Mercury". If the New York Liberty win, the market will resolve to "New Yor…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book signals 20% probability for "Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty".

YES 20% NO 80%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $314K.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?
Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
James WilliamsJames WilliamsPrediction Market AnalystandDavid ParkDavid ParkSports Data Analyst

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