Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 3 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: LYON (-3.5) vs Contra (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: LYON (-4.5) vs Contra (+4.5) | 90% |
| Map 5 Rounds Handicap: LYON (-2.5) vs Contra (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map 4 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: LYON (-2.5) vs Contra (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Contra (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: LYON (-3.5) vs Contra (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: LYON (-3.5) vs Contra (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: LYON (-3.5) vs Contra (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 5 Rounds Handicap: LYON (-3.5) vs Contra (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: LYON (-2.5) vs Contra (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: LYON (-2.5) vs Contra (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: LYON (-4.5) vs Contra (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BBB (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BBB (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to valorant: contra vs lyon (bo5) - vcl latin america north: playoffs. This market refers to the Valorant Lower bracket final match between Contra and LYON in the VCL Latin America North: Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 9 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to…
Methodology
This page reads Valorant: Contra vs LYON (BO5) - VCL Latin America North: Playoffs on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- How does UMA secure the resolution?
- The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
- Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?
- Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.
Trade Valorant: Contra vs LYON (BO5) - VCL Latin America N… on BTC Prediction
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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