Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-4.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-6.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-5.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-4.5) vs 100 Thieves (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-5.5) vs 100 Thieves (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Match Winner | 28% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-7.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+7.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-4.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-4.5) vs 100 Thieves (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the Valorant Semifinal 1 match between 100 Thieves and Nongshim RedForce in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 11 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
This page reads Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- How does UMA secure the resolution?
- The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
- Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?
- Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.
- Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?
- In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.
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