IF Elfsborg vs. IK Sirius - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

The Allsvenskan fixture between IF Elfsborg and IK Sirius concluded on 19 July 2026 at Borås Arena as a 0–0 draw, settling the primary outcome for this prediction market. With the game already finished and the settlement window closing shortly after, the 0% YES crowd-implied probability reflects the market’s recognition that no additional goals or secondary events occurred to trigger a positive resolution for the “More Markets” contract.

Historically, Allsvenskan matches featuring mid-table teams like Elfsborg (4–6–3) and high-performing Sirius (10–2–0) often produce tight, low-scoring outcomes, particularly when defensive form dominates. In comparable 2025–26 fixtures between similarly ranked sides, over 60% ended with under 2.5 total goals, reinforcing the likelihood of a null result in secondary markets. This pattern aligns with the current 0% probability, as the absence of goals eliminates most conditional triggers tied to goal-based or event-based sub-markets.

Traders should monitor on-chain settlement logs for USDC confirmation and verify that the oracle has ingested the final match report from official Allsvenskan sources. While no new announcements are pending post-match, whale flows in BTC or ETH could influence liquidity on btc-prediction.bet if macro volatility spikes ahead of settlement. For real-time verification, the match report on 365scores confirms the 0–0 result, providing the definitive data point for contract closure [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Can I use Bitcoin directly?

No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

How does UMA secure the resolution?

The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.

How volatile are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.

Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?

Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.