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Wisla Krakow vs. Wisla Plock - More Markets

How the on-chain market is pricing "Wisla Krakow vs. Wisla Plock - More Markets" right now, plus comparison with Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold.

O/U 0.5 100% O/U 1.5 100% O/U 2.5 100% Both Teams to Score 100% Volume: $77K Closes: 7 Aug 2026
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Wisla Krakow vs. Wisla Plock - More Markets

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 0.5100%
O/U 1.5100%
O/U 2.5100%
Both Teams to Score100%
Both Teams to Score in First Half100%
1st Half O/U 0.5100%
1st Half O/U 1.5100%
1st Half O/U 2.5100%
Wisla Krakow O/U 0.5100%
Wisla Krakow O/U 1.5100%
Wisla Plock O/U 0.5100%
Wisla Krakow 1st Half O/U 0.5100%
Wisla Krakow 1st Half O/U 1.5100%
Wisla Plock 1st Half O/U 0.5100%
Wisla Krakow (-1.5)0%
Wisla Plock (-1.5)0%
Wisla Krakow (-2.5)0%
Wisla Plock (-2.5)0%
O/U 3.50%
O/U 4.50%
O/U 5.50%
Wisla Krakow O/U 2.50%
Wisla Plock O/U 1.50%
Wisla Plock O/U 2.50%
Wisla Plock 1st Half O/U 1.50%
Both Teams to Score in Second Half0%
2nd Half O/U 0.50%
2nd Half O/U 1.50%
2nd Half O/U 2.50%
Wisla Krakow 2nd Half O/U 0.50%
Wisla Krakow 2nd Half O/U 1.50%
Wisla Plock 2nd Half O/U 0.50%
Wisla Plock 2nd Half O/U 1.50%

Market context

Wisła Kraków and Wisła Płock are meeting in the Ekstraklasa, with the “more markets” contract settling on whether additional market conditions are listed for the match rather than the match result itself. Head-to-head data suggest a broadly competitive fixture rather than a one-sided one: across reported meetings, Wisła Kraków has the edge in wins, but draws are common and recent scorelines have been tight, including 1-1 and 0-0 results alongside a 3-1 win either way.[2][4][9]

That history helps explain why a crowd-implied **0% YES** can still coexist with live event risk: on-chain markets often price the exact contract mechanics, not just the football fixture, and settlement in USDC means the key question is whether the listed “more markets” condition is met before the window closes. Traders should watch for any final match-centre metadata, delayed listings, or changes to the market set as kickoff approaches, because those operational details can matter more than team form in a binary “more markets” contract. If the wider crypto backdrop is relevant, BTC and ETH spot moves, funding rates, and visible exchange flows can affect USDC risk appetite and short-term liquidity, but only as a secondary driver unless the market is already thin.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Wisla Krakow vs. Wisla Plock - More Markets on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
Can I use Bitcoin directly?
No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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