New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies

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Market context

The Mets and Phillies are scheduled to meet at Citizens Bank Park on 21 June, with the market resolving directly off the game’s official final result; if the game is postponed, it stays open until completion, and a cancellation or tie pushes it to 50-50. ESPN’s live listing shows the matchup as a completed 2-0 Phillies win, while the pre-game context around the event still matters for how the market had been priced earlier in the day.[1][3]

A **44% YES** price for the Mets implies they were being treated as the underdog, which fits the broader shape of the season records shown in the available listings: Philadelphia had the stronger win-loss mark and home field, while New York was below .500 on the road.[1][3] In comparable divisional match-ups, short-run pricing often tracks starting pitching and recent form more than full-season strength, and MLB’s preview notes Zack Wheeler has posted a 1.44 ERA in four starts against the Mets since the start of 2024, a clear Phillies-side anchor when he is on the mound.[5]

For traders focused on on-chain settlement, the key mechanical point is that the outcome is binary unless weather intervenes, so USDC exposure is mainly about finality risk rather than drawdown over time. The catalyst set is therefore concentrated: confirmed line-up news, any delay or postponement announcement, and the official game status from MLB or the venue; the schedule was set for 7:20 p.m. ET, leaving limited time for new information to move price once first pitch approaches.[3][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.