Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Match Winner | 54% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 10% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: MVU (-1.5) vs CCG Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Maryville University’s best-of-three against CCG Esports is the real-world event behind the market, with the contract settling on the match winner if it is completed and on a 50-50 result only if the game is cancelled, tied, or left unresolved beyond the delay window. On the current slate, the crowd-implied 100% YES price is materially higher than other venue snapshots, where Robinhood showed Maryville at 59¢ versus CCG at 42¢ and Kalshi-style pricing in a related Maryville/CCG contract had Maryville around 62%, suggesting the market is treating Maryville as the clear side but not an absolute lock.[5][13]
The historical frame is a very small direct sample: these teams met once earlier in 2026, and Maryville won that series 2-0.[2][3] That prior result matters more than broad team reputation here because the matchup is fresh and the teams are closely rated in third-party rankings, with Strafe placing Maryville at #129 and CCG at #125, while both had won three of their last five matches in the build-up to this series.[3] In other words, a perfect 100% price looks less like a read on underlying strength than a statement that the market assumes the series will be played and that Maryville is highly likely to prevail.
Traders should watch for final lobby confirmation, any schedule slippage, and whether the series starts on time, because prediction markets on esports can reprice sharply if a BO3 is delayed, remade, or affected by technical pauses. The match was listed for 6 August around 9:00-11:00 PM UTC across multiple esports trackers, but the contract’s settlement depends on an actual winner being determined within the allowed window.[1][3][8] For broader crypto context, these contracts settle in USDC on-chain, so the practical risk is not BTC or ETH direction unless there is a wider risk-off move that hits market participation; at the micro level, the main catalysts are start-time certainty and any official league or team announcement affecting the fixture.
Methodology
This page reads LoL: Maryville University vs CCG Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers League Group Stage on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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