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LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

On-chain snapshot for "LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs" — live Polygon order book, USDC settlement, platform comparison.

Match Winner 74% First Blood in Game 1? 72% Game 2 Winner 67% Game 1 Winner 66% Volume: $170K Liquidity: $265K Closes: 4 Jul 2026
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LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 74% 26% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 74% 26% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner74%
First Blood in Game 1?72%
Game 2 Winner67%
Game 1 Winner66%
Game 3 Winner66%
O/U 3.5 Games66%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?66%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon61%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon61%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon61%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?61%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)57%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?56%
Odd/Even Total Kills52%
Game 4 Winner51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?50%
Odd/Even Total Kills49%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
First Blood in Game 4?48%
First Blood in Game 3?48%
First Blood in Game 2?48%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?48%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?48%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?48%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon47%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon46%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?43%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?42%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?42%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?40%
Any Player Quadra Kill38%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors38%
Any Player Quadra Kill38%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor37%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors37%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors37%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor37%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?37%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor36%
Any Player Quadra Kill36%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)31%
O/U 4.5 Games28%
Any Player Penta Kill16%
Any Player Penta Kill16%
Any Player Penta Kill16%

Market context

The LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs prediction market currently prices this outcome at 74% YES. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between LYON and FURIA Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 3 at 11:00PM ET. This market will…

Methodology

This page reads LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
Can I use Bitcoin directly?
No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
How does UMA secure the resolution?
The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?
Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.
Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?
In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.
James WilliamsJames WilliamsPrediction Market AnalystandDavid ParkDavid ParkSports Data Analyst

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