Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
72% | 28% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
72% | 28% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 3.5 Games | 72% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 63% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 58% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 56% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 56% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 55% |
| Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) | 52% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 5? | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 47% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 5? | 47% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 46% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 45% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 45% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 44% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 44% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 44% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 44% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 44% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 44% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 43% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 43% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 43% |
| Game 3 Winner | 40% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 40% |
| Game 1 Winner | 39% |
| Game 2 Winner | 39% |
| Game 4 Winner | 39% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 33% |
| Match Winner | 30% |
| Game Handicap: DK (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: karmine corp vs dplus kia (bo5) - esports world cup playoffs stands at 72% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between Karmine Corp and Dplus KIA in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 19 at 8:30AM ET. This market wil…
Methodology
This page reads LoL: Karmine Corp vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- How does UMA secure the resolution?
- The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
- Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?
- Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.
- Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?
- In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.
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