LoL: FlyQuest vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Platform comparison

Market context

FlyQuest meet Disguised in a best-of-three LCS regular-season series, and the market is pricing a clean FlyQuest win as effectively certain at 100% YES. That makes sense in the context of the teams’ recent head-to-head record: FlyQuest have won all three recorded meetings listed by match databases, including a 2–0 in the 2026 spring regular season and a 2–1 in the Lock-In stage. [1][8][10]

For probability read-through, the key point is that this contract is not about series quality so much as execution risk around a single scheduled match. FlyQuest’s historical edge is large, but prediction-market settlement here is driven by whether the BO3 is actually completed and won by the expected favourite; if the fixture is postponed more than seven days, abandoned, or cancelled, the market can still resolve to 50–50 under the stated rules. Comparable prior meetings between these sides also skewed heavily towards FlyQuest, which helps explain why the crowd has left little room for an upset. [1][8][14]

The main catalysts are operational rather than macro: confirmed start time, any LCS schedule change, roster or substitution news, and whether the series is played in full before the settlement window closes. On-chain, the relevant mechanism is the eventual USDC payout path rather than BTC or ETH direction, so broader crypto moves only matter indirectly through venue flow, wallet risk appetite, or reserve management rather than the match result itself. If the event is delayed, the market can drift towards the binary 50–50 fallback even without a completed series, so late announcements matter more than pre-match betting noise.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads LoL: FlyQuest vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Can I use Bitcoin directly?

No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

How volatile are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.

Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?

In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.