Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
69% | 31% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
69% | 31% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 69% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 69% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 68% |
| Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) | 67% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 64% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 63% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 63% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 62% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 52% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 48% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 44% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 44% |
| Game 4 Winner | 39% |
| Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) | 35% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 34% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 34% |
| Game 2 Winner | 34% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 33% |
| Game 1 Winner | 33% |
| Game 3 Winner | 33% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 32% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 24% |
| Match Winner | 19% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: deep cross gaming vs team liquid (bo5) - mid-season invitational play-in stands at 69% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between Deep Cross Gaming and Team Liquid in the Mid-Season Invitational Play-In, initially scheduled for June 29 at 4:0…
Methodology
This page reads LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- How does UMA secure the resolution?
- The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
- Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?
- Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.
- Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?
- In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.
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