Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union 3 - 1 Club Necaxa | 100% |
| Philadelphia Union 0 - 0 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 0 - 1 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 1 - 0 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 0 - 2 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 1 - 1 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 2 - 0 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 0 - 3 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 1 - 2 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 2 - 1 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 3 - 0 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 1 - 3 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 2 - 2 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 2 - 3 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 3 - 2 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 3 - 3 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Any Other Score | 0% |
Market context
Philadelphia Union’s Leagues Cup meeting with Club Necaxa was a live, low-scoring market by the time the contract was framed, and the crowd’s 0% YES implies no listed exact score had meaningful uptake. The match itself finished Philadelphia Union 3-1 Necaxa after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, so the settlement-relevant score is already known and any exact-score contract keyed to that result would resolve against the specific listed outcome rather than “Any Other Score”.[1][9]
For context, the recent scoring profiles pointed towards a narrow set of plausible results rather than a broad distribution. Philadelphia had been producing and conceding in higher-event MLS games, including a 3-2 win over Atlanta United and a 3-1 win over New York Red Bulls, while Necaxa had mixed results coming into the tie, losing 3-1 to Toluca and 2-0 to Chicago Fire in Leagues Cup play.[2][7] That kind of form usually concentrates exact-score interest around common football scores such as 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and 3-1, rather than extreme margins.
For traders watching the on-chain side, the relevant mechanics are straightforward: the contract settles in USDC on the final regulation score, so there is no extra-time or penalties adjustment, and the key dependency is the official match completion rather than live in-play sentiment. In broader macro terms, short-dated sports markets on crypto rails often move more with BTC and ETH risk appetite than with football-specific news, so large swings in spot or funding can affect inventory and bid depth even when the underlying probability is already close to realised outcome territory.
Methodology
This page reads Philadelphia Union vs. Club Necaxa - Exact Score on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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