Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Anyang (-1.5) | 0% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 (-2.5) | 0% |
| FC Anyang (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Anyang 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Bucheon FC 1995 host FC Anyang in a K-League fixture at Bucheon Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 6:30 AM ET and settlement tied to the match outcome by the market window. The crowd pricing of 0% YES implies the contract is effectively assigning no live probability to the specified “more markets” resolution, so even small changes in what the settlement source recognises could matter more than in a liquid, two-sided line.[2][1]
Historically, this matchup has not been one-sided in a way that supports a near-zero view on any extra-market outcome. FootyStats lists 48 previous meetings with Bucheon winning 13, Anyang 20, and 15 draws, while FCTables puts the average goals total in direct matches at 2.51, which is consistent with a game that can generate ancillary markets through goals, cards, corners, or late match-state swings rather than a dead, low-event script.[4][3]
For traders, the main catalysts are the official match report, any schedule slippage, and the market’s exact settlement rules rather than team news alone. Because this is an on-chain USDC-settled contract, the practical risk is usually not scoreline uncertainty but whether the designated data source publishes a complete, unambiguous result before the settlement deadline. If broader crypto conditions tighten, BTC and ETH spot moves, perpetual funding, or large exchange inflows can also affect collateral appetite and secondary-market pricing, even though they do not change the football result itself.
Methodology
This page reads Bucheon FC 1995 vs. FC Anyang - More Markets on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- How does UMA secure the resolution?
- The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
- How volatile are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.
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