Haiti vs. Scotland - Exact Score

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Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 13 June at 9:00 PM ET. The market settles on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with any unlisted scoreline resolving to "Any Other Score." The 6% implied probability for a specific outcome reflects the combinatorial challenge of predicting exact scores in football: whilst individual match results cluster around narrow ranges, the number of possible final scorelines is large, distributing probability thinly across dozens of potential outcomes.

Haiti's World Cup history offers limited precedent for calibrating expectations. The nation qualified for the 1974 tournament but has not appeared in a World Cup since; their recent competitive record shows inconsistency across CONCACAF qualifying. Scotland, conversely, qualified for 2026 after missing the previous two tournaments, indicating improved form under current management. Historical exact-score markets for competitive matches between teams of differing strength typically see the favourite's most probable scorelines (2–0, 2–1, 1–0) capture 15–25% of total probability mass combined, with the 6% figure here suggesting traders are pricing in substantial uncertainty around whether Haiti can remain competitive.

Key catalysts include final squad announcements from both federations, expected in May 2026, and any late injury disclosures. Weather conditions in the host nation and fixture scheduling relative to other group matches may affect team intensity. Crypto traders monitoring this contract should note that exact-score markets exhibit lower liquidity than match-result markets; funding rates and order-book depth on btc-prediction.bet will signal whether whale positioning is building ahead of the settlement window closure on 14 June at 01:00 UTC.

Methodology

This page reads Haiti vs. Scotland - Exact Score on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.