Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 77% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 71% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 70% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 68% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ shots | 60% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 58% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 56% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Viktor Johansson: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Viktor Johansson: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Viktor Johansson: 4+ saves | 46% |
| Viktor Johansson: 5+ saves | 46% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots | 44% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 40% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 35% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 35% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 31% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 30% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 25% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 25% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 22% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 22% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 16% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ shots | 15% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 15% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 11% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Bradley Barcola: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Rayan Cherki: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Alexander Isak: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Marcus Thuram: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Marcus Thuram: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcus Thuram: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 94% YES probability for France vs. Sweden - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Sweden, scheduled for June 30 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- How does UMA secure the resolution?
- The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
- Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?
- Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.
- Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?
- In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.
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