France vs. Iraq - More Markets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

France meet Iraq in the FIFA World Cup group stage at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, with kickoff set for 5:00 p.m. ET and the official match centre listing 22 June 2026 as the start time. The “More Markets” contract settles if additional related markets are listed for that game before the window closes at 21:00 UTC, so the key issue is not the result itself but whether the event page expands the menu in time. [1][4][8]

The 71% crowd-implied Yes price already looks consistent with a heavily favoured France position in the match market, where ESPN lists France around -700 on the moneyline and FOX Sports shows similar one-sided pricing. In comparable football event markets, a favourite this strong often coincides with broader prop creation around goalscorers, total goals, and handicaps, because operators tend to add derivative markets once the core betting view is established. [2][3]

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: any late fixture change, a revised broadcast or venue note, or a fresh market expansion on the exchange before settlement. Because this is a USDC-settled on-chain contract, activity in BTC and ETH can matter only indirectly, through liquidity and risk appetite on the venue rather than through the football outcome itself; if crypto conditions tighten, spreads and depth can shift even when the underlying sports event is unchanged. The match has already been heavily promoted by FIFA and broadcasters, which makes the remaining question operational rather than sporting: whether “more markets” are posted before the cut-off. [1][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads France vs. Iraq - More Markets on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.