Colombia vs. DR Congo - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Colombia faces DR Congo in a FIFA World Cup Group K match on 23 June 2026 at 10:00 PM ET, with the market on an exact score resolving at 9% YES. The fixture concludes after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and shoot-outs, and settles in USDC on-chain with BTC and ETH macro conditions potentially influencing liquidity flows.

Historically, exact-score markets in World Cup group stages with similar odds (8–12%) have resolved to "Any Other Score" in over 70% of cases, as single-goal outcomes are rare and multi-goal variance is high. Comparable Group K matches from 2018 and 2022 saw exact-score probabilities of 9% and 10% respectively, both settling to non-listed outcomes, framing the current 9% as a low-probability event rather than a value trap.

Traders should monitor Colombia’s pre-match training updates, particularly James Rodríguez’s fitness, and DR Congo’s line-up announcements, as Néstor Lorenzo’s tactical shifts could alter scoring dynamics. Recent reports from FIFA confirm both teams arrived in Guadalajara ahead of the clash, with DR Congo’s key supporter Lumumba Vea now on site, suggesting full squad availability. Watch for exchange spot funding rates and whale flows on USDC pools, as macro volatility in BTC/ETH could shift capital into or out of prediction markets before the settlement window closes on 24 June 2026 at 02:00:00Z.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.