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Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group A

How the on-chain market is pricing "Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group A" right now, plus comparison with Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold.

Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? 56% Ends in Daytime 51% Both Teams Beat Roshan 50% Both Teams Destroy Barracks 50% Volume: $409K Liquidity: $201K Closes: 7 Jul 2026
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Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group A

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
56% 44% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
56% 44% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?56%
Ends in Daytime51%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1?50%
Game 2 Winner45%
Match Winner42%
Game 1 Winner38%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?35%
Any Player Rampage5%
First Blood in Game 1?1%

Market context

The Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group A prediction market currently prices this outcome at 56% YES. This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Team Falcons and BetBoom Team in the Esports World Cup Group A, initially scheduled for July 7 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" …

Methodology

This page reads Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group A on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

What are crypto prediction markets?
Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
How does UMA secure the resolution?
The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?
Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.
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