Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
74% | 26% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
74% | 26% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 74% |
| Game 1 Winner | 68% |
| Game 2 Winner | 67% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 63% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 63% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 57% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Game Handicap: BoomBoys (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5) | 32% |
Market context
BoomBoys, the Southeast Asian Dota 2 roster, face OG in the opening round of The International's group stage on 12 August at 10:00PM ET. OG remain one of the scene's most decorated organisations, having won two International titles, whilst BoomBoys represent a younger competitive force from the region. The best-of-three format means either team must secure two map wins to advance, with the match settlement tied to a 7-day window; any cancellation, tie, or unresolved outcome beyond that threshold triggers a 50-50 split on-chain.
The 68% crowd probability favouring BoomBoys reflects a significant underdog positioning for OG despite their pedigree. Historical International group stages show Southeast Asian teams have narrowed the skill gap considerably since 2021, with multiple upsets occurring in early rounds. OG's recent roster changes and limited LAN preparation heading into The International typically correlate with tighter odds in opening matches, whereas BoomBoys' regional dominance and consistent bootcamp attendance have strengthened their perceived baseline strength.
Key catalysts include any last-minute roster confirmations or player health updates from either organisation before the scheduled start. The International's official broadcast schedule and any technical delays affecting earlier matches could compress preparation windows. USDC settlement mechanics on btc-prediction.bet remain active through 13 August at 08:00 UTC, creating a hard deadline for match completion; traders should monitor Dota 2 esports news feeds and OG's official channels for withdrawal announcements or scheduling adjustments that might trigger the tie-resolution clause.
Methodology
This page reads Dota 2: BoomBoys vs OG (BO3) - The International Group Stage on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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