Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Galorys (-3.5) vs MEIA NOITE (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Galorys (-3.5) vs MEIA NOITE (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Galorys (-6.5) vs MEIA NOITE (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Galorys (-6.5) vs MEIA NOITE (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: GLS (-1.5) vs MEIA NOITE (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Galorys (-3.5) vs MEIA NOITE (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Galorys (-6.5) vs MEIA NOITE (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
Market context
Galorys meet MEIA NOITE in a best-of-three BetBoom Storm Group Stage round-one Counter-Strike 2 match, and the contract settles in USDC on the event outcome or, if the match is not completed under the market rules, on the specified fallback. The crowd-implied **0% YES** points to either a stale order book or a very thin market rather than a strong information-led view, because several listings still price Galorys as the clear favourite in the underlying fixture. [1][12][16]
Comparable pricing across esports books and prediction venues frames this as a one-sided South American lower-tier CS2 match, with Galorys generally quoted around 1.26-1.33 to win versus roughly 2.9-3.2 for MEIA NOITE, while one prediction feed shows 100% of user picks on Galorys. [13][15][18] That does not guarantee a clean market resolution, but it does explain why a 0% YES contract can persist if the on-chain book has little two-sided liquidity, especially where settlement is binary and fast-moving around late schedule changes.
What matters next is whether the match starts on time and is reported consistently across tournament and score providers, since CS2 markets can be affected by delays, map restarts, or administrative outcomes that trigger a different settlement path. The scheduled start is listed as 20:00 UTC on 4 August, but some outlets display a later local listing for the same fixture, so traders should watch for official bracket updates and live match status rather than relying on a single schedule line. [2][3][11] With BTC and ETH broadly acting as the collateral backdrop for crypto-native prediction markets, any wider move in spot or funding is secondary here; the contract is primarily driven by whether this specific BO3 is actually played and finished.
Methodology
This page reads Counter-Strike: Galorys vs MEIA NOITE (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- How volatile are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.
- Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?
- Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.
- Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?
- In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.
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