Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Honvéd (-3.5) vs Entropy (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Entropy (-3.5) vs Honvéd (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Entropy (-3.5) vs Honvéd (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Entropy (-6.5) vs Honvéd (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Entropy (-6.5) vs Honvéd (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: Honvéd (-1.5) vs Entropy (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Honvéd (-3.5) vs Entropy (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: Entropy (-1.5) vs Honvéd (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Honvéd (-6.5) vs Entropy (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Entropy (-9.5) vs Honvéd (+9.5) | 0% |
Market context
Entropy Gaming faces Honvéd Esports in a decisive Counter-Strike 2 match at the CCT Europe Closed Qualifier, Series 5 Group B, originally slated for 7:00 AM ET on 19 July. The contest is a best-of-three decider where the winner advances, with current crowd-implied probability at 0% for Entropy, suggesting the market views Honvéd as the dominant side.
Historical data from the same qualifier shows Entropy and Honvéd previously met on 15 July, where Honvéd secured a 2–1 victory, reinforcing their 60% win rate against Entropy’s 40% in this matchup [2][4]. Comparable decider matches in CCT qualifiers often see the team with higher recent form and head-to-head advantage prevail, aligning with the near-zero probability assigned to Entropy.
Traders should monitor official tournament updates for any match cancellation or delay beyond seven days, which would trigger a 50–50 settlement per market rules [6]. Key catalysts include live match status on bo3.gg, where the match is currently marked as live with Entropy leading 2–1 in a separate recorded instance, though this may reflect a prior or different series [3]. Any forfeiture or disqualification post-gameplay start will resolve based on the official result declared by the organizer, not the initial odds [6].
Methodology
This page reads Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Honvéd (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #5 Group B on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- How volatile are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.
- Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?
- Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.
- Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?
- In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.
Trade Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Honvéd (BO3) - CCT Europe… on BTC Prediction
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →