Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
68% | 32% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
68% | 32% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 68% |
| Map 2 Winner | 64% |
| Map 1 Winner | 59% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 52% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 49% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 46% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 46% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs Team Nemesis (+3.5) | 44% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs Team Nemesis (+3.5) | 43% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs Team Nemesis (+3.5) | 38% |
| Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) | 37% |
Market context
Market consensus: 68% chance of counter-strike: betboom team vs team nemesis (bo3) - xse pro league group stage. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 3 match between BetBoom Team and Team Nemesis in the XSE Pro League Group Stage, initially scheduled for July 3 at 9:00AM ET. This m…
Methodology
This page reads Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- How does UMA secure the resolution?
- The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
- Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?
- In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.
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