Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 91% |
| O/U 34.5 | 87% |
| Spread -1.5 | 83% |
| Spread -2.5 | 81% |
| Spread -3.5 | 78% |
| Spread -4.5 | 77% |
| O/U 30.5 | 77% |
| O/U 32.5 | 77% |
| Spread -5.5 | 74% |
| O/U 36.5 | 74% |
| O/U 40.5 | 74% |
| O/U 38.5 | 73% |
| Spread -6.5 | 71% |
| O/U 42.5 | 69% |
| Spread -7.5 | 68% |
| Spread -9.5 | 63% |
| O/U 44.5 | 63% |
| Spread -8.5 | 62% |
| Spread -10.5 | 60% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 60% |
| Spread -11.5 | 58% |
| O/U 46.5 | 56% |
| O/U 48.5 | 56% |
| Spread -12.5 | 55% |
| Spread -13.5 | 53% |
| Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 51% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| DeVon Rice: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| James Jones: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tama Uiliata: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Devin Alves: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Audric Harris: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Trey Hedden: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tyler King: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Blaze Kamoku: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Micah Alejado: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Terrell Washington Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Carson Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dijon Stanley: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kainoa Carvalho: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Josiah Fetui: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| TJ Pride: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Lyndon Ravare: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Josiah Thomas: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Terrione Graves: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| O/U 49.5 | 49% |
| Spread -18.5 | 45% |
| O/U 50.5 | 43% |
| Spread -16.5 | 43% |
| Spread -17.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| O/U 56.5 | 41% |
| O/U 51.5 | 40% |
| O/U 52.5 | 38% |
| Spread -22.5 | 36% |
| O/U 60.5 | 35% |
| O/U 54.5 | 33% |
| O/U 62.5 | 33% |
| Spread -20.5 | 32% |
| Spread -25.5 | 31% |
| Spread -28.5 | 31% |
| O/U 66.5 | 30% |
| Spread -21.5 | 29% |
| O/U 68.5 | 28% |
| O/U 58.5 | 24% |
| Spread -24.5 | 22% |
| New Mexico State vs. Hawai'i | 17% |
| Spread -27.5 | 16% |
| O/U 64.5 | 14% |
| Spread -2.5 | 12% |
| O/U 70.5 | 8% |
| Spread -6.5 | 8% |
| Spread -5.5 | 8% |
| Spread -9.5 | 5% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 91% probability to new mexico state vs. hawai'i. In the upcoming college football game between New Mexico State and Hawai'i, scheduled for September 13 at 12:00AM ET: This market will resolve to "New Mexico State" if New Mexico State win the game. T…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $267K.
Methodology
This page reads New Mexico State vs. Hawai'i on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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