Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Roman Andres Burruchaga | 0% |
| Estoril Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Estoril Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Estoril Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Estoril Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Estoril Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to estoril open: stan wawrinka vs roman andres burruchaga. This market refers to the tennis match between Stan Wawrinka and Roman Andres Burruchaga in the Estoril Open, originally scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Stan Wa…
Methodology
This page reads Estoril Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Roman Andres Burruchaga on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- How volatile are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.
- Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?
- Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.
- Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?
- In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.
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