Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots | 99% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots | 99% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots | 52% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Edin Džeko: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Chris Brady: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Chris Brady: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Chris Brady: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Tim Weah: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Chris Brady: 2+ saves | 46% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots | 46% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots | 42% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots | 41% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | 30% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals | 30% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals | 18% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 100%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina, scheduled for July 1 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- How volatile are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.
- Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?
- Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.
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