Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots | 76% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots | 69% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals + assists | 66% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots | 65% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals + assists | 63% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 62% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots | 57% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 56% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Tyler Adams: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Matt Turner: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brandon Mechele: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Timothy Castagne: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 49% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Hans Vanaken: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals + assists | 45% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 45% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots | 44% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals + assists | 43% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals + assists | 43% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 43% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 42% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 42% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots | 40% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 34% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | 30% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 5+ shots | 23% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Folarin Balogun: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Chris Richards: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ shots | 8% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Weston McKennie: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Tim Ream: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Haji Wright: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Alex Freeman: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Malik Tillman: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Hans Vanaken: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Antonee Robinson: 3+ shots | 3% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
The United States vs. Belgium - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 94% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between United States and Belgium, scheduled for July 6 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- How volatile are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.
- Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?
- Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.
- Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?
- In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.
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