Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots | 73% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 72% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 63% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 55% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 48% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Patrick Berg: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Sander Berge: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 47% |
| Patrick Berg: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 2+ shots | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 3+ shots | 46% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 45% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots | 45% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ shots | 43% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 42% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 40% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 39% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 39% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 38% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 2+ shots | 34% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 4+ saves | 33% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 32% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Patrick Berg: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Erling Haaland: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 30% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 30% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 29% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 27% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Sander Berge: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 25% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Patrick Berg: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 23% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 23% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Patrick Berg: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 22% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 1+ shots | 21% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 1+ shots | 20% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 1+ shots | 20% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 20% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 19% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 18% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 15% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Sander Berge: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals | 11% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 9% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Kristian Thorstvedt: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Kristian Thorstvedt: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ assists | 1% |
Market context
The Norway vs. England - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 94% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Norway and England, scheduled for July 11 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page reads Norway vs. England - Player Props on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- How does UMA secure the resolution?
- The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
- How volatile are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.
- Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?
- Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.
- Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?
- In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.
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