Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
88% | 12% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
88% | 12% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Cody Gakpo: 4+ shots | 54% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Guus Til: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Guus Til: 5+ shots | 51% |
| Memphis Depay: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Guus Til: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Guus Til: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Guus Til: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Guus Til: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Guus Til: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Guus Til: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noa Lang: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noa Lang: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guus Til: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guus Til: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guus Til: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noa Lang: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mark Flekken: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mark Flekken: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mark Flekken: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Mark Flekken: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Donyell Malen: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Wout Weghorst: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ shots | 45% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Guus Til: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Guus Til: 3+ goals | 27% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Guus Til: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Guus Til: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Guus Til: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Guus Til: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals | 11% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals | 2% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 88% probability to netherlands vs. morocco - player props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Netherlands and Morocco, scheduled for June 29 at 9:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- How does UMA secure the resolution?
- The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
- Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?
- Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.
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