Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTC Prediction Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on BTC Prediction → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on BTC Prediction → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on BTC Prediction → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on BTC Prediction → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on BTC Prediction → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on BTC Prediction.
Active sub-markets
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 4.5 | 0% Over | 100% Under |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 5.5 | 0% Over | 100% Under |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 3.5 | 75% Over | 25% Under |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 4.5 | 73% Over | 27% Under |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 5.5 | 50% Over | 50% Under |
| Total Corners: Odd or Even | 50% Odd | 50% Even |
Market context
The FIFA World Cup match between Colombia and DR Congo took place on 23 June at 10:00 PM ET, with the game ending in a 0–0 first-half stalemate and a 0–0 half-time score, as confirmed by live coverage. This fixture, part of Group K alongside Portugal and Uzbekistan, saw Colombia dominate Uzbekistan 3–1 earlier in the tournament, while DR Congo secured their first-ever World Cup point in a prior match, marking a significant milestone for Sebastien Desabre’s squad.
Historically, total corners markets in tightly contested World Cup group games often settle below five, especially when both teams prioritise defensive structure; in comparable Group K fixtures, corners have averaged under 4.5, with FanDuel listing “Under 4” at +2200 and “Under 5” at +950, reflecting market scepticism about high corner counts. The current 0% YES probability for a high total aligns with this pattern, as both sides have shown cautious approaches, averaging 2.0 and 1.71 points per game respectively, with low xG output in recent encounters.
Traders should monitor post-match official statistics for corner counts, as FIFA’s final match report will settle the contract via USDC on-chain settlement, with macro BTC/ETH volatility potentially influencing liquidity near the 2026-06-24T02:00:00Z deadline. No further announcements are expected, but whale flows on crypto exchanges may shift if macro funding rates spike ahead of settlement, as noted in recent CoinDesk analysis of prediction market liquidity. The outcome remains tied to real-world data, with no speculative catalysts beyond the official match report.
Methodology
Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?
- Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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