Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
81% | 19% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
81% | 19% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 81% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ shots | 75% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 73% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 60% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ shots | 59% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ shots | 55% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 53% |
| Egil Selvik: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Egil Selvik: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Egil Selvik: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ shots | 46% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ shots | 45% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 44% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 42% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ shots | 35% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 35% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ goals + assists | 34% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ shots | 29% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 27% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 26% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 21% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Amad Diallo: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 19% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Amad Diallo: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 17% |
| Oumar Diakité: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Evann Guessand: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 5+ shots | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Jens Hauge: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Jens Hauge: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Egil Selvik: 5+ saves | 7% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Elye Wahi: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Evann Guessand: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Oumar Diakité: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Evann Guessand: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Oumar Diakité: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jens Hauge: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Oscar Bobb: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Amad Diallo: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 81% chance of côte d'ivoire vs. norway - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Côte d'Ivoire and Norway, scheduled for June 30 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page reads Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway - Player Props on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- How volatile are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.
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