Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Yasser Ibrahim: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 99% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots | 80% |
| Yasser Ibrahim: 1+ shots on target | 77% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots | 75% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Hamza Abdelkarim: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Cristian Romero: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Marawan Attia: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Marawan Attia: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Hany: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Hany: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Yasser Ibrahim: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marawan Attia: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Hany: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ramy Rabia: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Mostafa Zico: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Mostafa Zico: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Ramy Rabia: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assists | 24% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Ramy Rabia: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Omar Marmoush: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots | 10% |
| Mohamed Salah: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Nahuel Molina: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 1+ shots | 1% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ shots | 1% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 1% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Hamza Abdelkarim: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 5+ shots | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of argentina vs. egypt - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Egypt, scheduled for July 7 at 12:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page reads Argentina vs. Egypt - Player Props on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- How volatile are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.
- Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?
- In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.
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