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Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B

How the on-chain market is pricing "Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B" right now, plus comparison with Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold.

Game Handicap: Z10 (-1.5) vs RE.Arise (+1.5) 100% Any Player Ultra Kill 99% Ends in Daytime 90% Both Teams Beat Roshan 51% Volume: $292K Liquidity: $334K Closes: 29 Jul 2026
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Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game Handicap: Z10 (-1.5) vs RE.Arise (+1.5)100%
Any Player Ultra Kill99%
Ends in Daytime90%
Both Teams Beat Roshan51%
Ends in Daytime51%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Any Player Rampage50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks10%
Any Player Ultra Kill1%
Any Player Rampage1%
Game 1 Winner0%
Game 2 Winner0%
Match Winner0%
O/U 2.5 Games0%
Game Handicap: RE.Arise (-1.5) vs Zero Tenacity (+1.5)0%
Ends in Daytime0%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, dota 2: re.arise vs zero tenacity (bo3) - epl masters group b stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Dota 2 match between RE.Arise and Zero Tenacity in the EPL Masters Group B, initially scheduled for July 29 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "RE…

Methodology

This page reads Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

What are crypto prediction markets?
Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
Can I use Bitcoin directly?
No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?
In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.
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