Market statistics
- Total volume
- $527K
- 24h volume
- $360K
- Liquidity
- $642
- Open interest
- $8K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Available prediction outcomes (71)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Natus Vincere and REKONIX in the DreamLeague Group B, initially scheduled for May 14 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against REKONIX. This market will resolve to "REKONIX" if REKONIX win the match against Natus Vincere. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-
Wikipedia Context
-
Donatus, Landgrave of HesseDonatus, Prince and Landgrave of Hesse is a German businessman and the head of the House of Brabant and the House of Hesse.
-
Donatus MagnusDonatus Magnus, also known as Donatus of Carthage, was a prophetic and charismatic leader who emerged in the early fourth century as the founder of the Donatist movement, a Christian sect that arose in North Africa as a result of the Diocletianic Persecution.
-
Donatus of FiesoleDonatus of Fiesole was an Irish teacher and poet, and Bishop of Fiesole.
-
Donatus of Bagai
Donatus of Bagaï, also known as Donatus of Aurasium, was an ancient Donatist bishop and martyr whose life and actions played a significant role in the complex religious landscape of 4th century Numidia. Despite being primarily known through hostile reports, notably found in Optatus' "Contra Parmenianum Donatistam" Donatus of Bagai left a lasting impact on th
Methodology
This page reads Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2earth. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- How does UMA secure the resolution?
- The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
- How volatile are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.
- Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?
- In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.
Trade Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →