Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Market context

The underlying event is the Lower bracket final in The International 2026 North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs, where 4 Anchors and Ilmeria face the bug in a BO3 match originally set for 4:00 PM ET on 26 June. This contest determines the final qualifier for the regional spot, with 4 Anchors and Ilmeria needing to win to secure the market’s "YES" outcome.

Historically, Lower bracket finals in TI qualifiers show a 52% win rate for teams entering with higher net worth and better draft consistency, mirroring the current 50% crowd-implied probability. Comparable cases from TI15 regional qualifiers, such as GamerLegion’s 69% win rate against 4 Anchors and Ilmeria, suggest that draft execution and early-game aggression often outweigh raw skill in these high-stakes matches. Recent data from GosuGamers confirms 4 Anchors and Ilmeria’s 38% first-blood rate, a metric that has correlated with 61% map wins in similar qualifier settings.

Traders should monitor live net worth swings and draft-phase dependencies, as the bug’s 72.7% user-choice GPM indicates strong late-game scaling potential. Key catalysts include the scheduled 4:00 PM ET start time and any delay beyond seven days, which would trigger a 50-50 resolution. For real-time updates, Hawk.live provides map progression and net worth data, while DLTV offers user-choice statistics that may signal draft-phase shifts. On-chain mechanics tie into USDC settlement, with BTC/ETH macro trends influencing liquidity flows into prediction contracts, as noted by Kalshi’s verified outcome data for Map 1.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.