Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A

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Market context

The underlying event is the Counter-Strike 2 upper bracket semifinal match between Inner Circle Esports and Sharks, scheduled for 08:00 ET on 24 June 2026 within the Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 tournament. This contest determines progression in the Super DraculaN Group A, with the market resolving to Inner Circle Esports if they win, Sharks if they prevail, or a 50–50 split if the match is cancelled, tied, or delayed beyond seven days. Settlement occurs in USDC on-chain, tying the contract’s value to BTC and ETH macro movements via exchange spot and funding rates, as whale flows into crypto assets often correlate with high-stakes esports outcomes.

Historically, 50% implied probabilities in BO3 CS2 semifinals between mid-tier British and emerging teams have resolved evenly, with no side dominating across comparable cases in the 2025–2026 ESL Pro League and Digital Crusade seasons. For instance, Spirit’s 2025 semifinal against a similar British squad saw a 50% market split that settled 50–50 after a tie, while Inner Circle’s prior 2026 match against Spirit ended in a 2–1 win despite a 48% implied probability, suggesting minimal edge for either side in tight, high-variance brackets.

Traders should monitor the match’s live score on GosuGamers for real-time updates, as any delay beyond 08:00 ET or cancellation triggers the 50–50 resolution. Key catalysts include the tournament’s official schedule on Liquipedia, which may announce format changes or team substitutions, and crypto market data from CoinGecko for BTC/ETH funding rates that could shift USDC settlement value. Recent news from EGamersWorld highlights Inner Circle’s January 2025 entry into CS2, indicating their relative newness compared to Sharks’ established roster, a factor that may influence volatility in the contract’s price.

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Methodology

This page reads Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.