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Counter-Strike: Grêmio Esports vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - CCT South America Series 4 Group Stage

How the on-chain market is pricing "Counter-Strike: Grêmio Esports vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - CCT South America Series 4 Group Stage" right now, plus comparison with Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold.

Map 1 Winner 100% Map 2 Winner 100% Match Winner 100% Map Handicap: Grêmio Esports (-1.5) vs METANOIA WOLVES (+1.5) 100% Volume: $72K Closes: 21 Jul 2026
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Counter-Strike: Grêmio Esports vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - CCT South America Series 4 Group Stage

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner100%
Map 2 Winner100%
Match Winner100%
Map Handicap: Grêmio Esports (-1.5) vs METANOIA WOLVES (+1.5)100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Grêmio Esports (-3.5) vs METANOIA WOLVES (+3.5)100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Grêmio Esports (-6.5) vs METANOIA WOLVES (+6.5)100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Grêmio Esports (-3.5) vs METANOIA WOLVES (+3.5)100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Grêmio Esports (-6.5) vs METANOIA WOLVES (+6.5)100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Grêmio Esports (-9.5) vs METANOIA WOLVES (+9.5)100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
O/U 2.5 Games0%
Map Handicap: MW (-1.5) vs Grêmio Esports (+1.5)0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Grêmio Esports (-9.5) vs METANOIA WOLVES (+9.5)0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.50%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Counter-Strike: Grêmio Esports vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - CCT South America Series 4 Group Stage. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between Grêmio Esports and METANOIA WOLVES in the CCT South America Series 4 Group Stage, initially scheduled for July 20 at 6:00PM ET. This mar…

Methodology

This page reads Counter-Strike: Grêmio Esports vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - CCT South America Series 4 Group Stage on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
Can I use Bitcoin directly?
No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
How does UMA secure the resolution?
The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?
Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.
Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?
In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.
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