Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 75% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 73% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 73% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 55% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Match Winner | 45% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-3.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+3.5) | 45% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-6.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+6.5) | 45% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 45% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BORRACHEIROS (-3.5) vs MEIA NOITE (+3.5) | 45% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 36.5 | 45% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-3.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+3.5) | 45% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-6.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+6.5) | 45% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 45% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 45% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-9.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+9.5) | 28% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-12.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+12.5) | 28% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-9.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+9.5) | 26% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-1.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: CHAMA (-1.5) vs MEIA NOITE (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Counter-Strike: BORRACHEIROS vs MEIA NOITE (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage — current market-implied probability: 100%. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 5 match between BORRACHEIROS and MEIA NOITE in the BetBoom Storm Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 10 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve t…
Methodology
Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade Counter-Strike: BORRACHEIROS vs MEIA NOITE (BO3) - B… on BTC Prediction
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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